Do Presidential Elections Impact Real Estate in Western Massachusetts and Beyond?
The simple answer is yes, but probably not in the way you think. Real estate transactions tend to taper off in an election year as people wait to see the results before they feel comfortable making a large decision like buying or selling real estate. During an election year, many people are watching to see how the candidates might help to reduce interest rates, improve the lack of inventory, and add affordable housing.
The amount of impact varies depending on which expert opinion you read and can also be very geographic in nature.
Many people do not understand that the President does not have immediate control over interest rates and must have the cooperation of the Senate and Congress to make any large changes that impact housing. Matt Myre of BiggerPockets did some analyzing on this topic and wrote: “It turns out that I could not find much evidence suggesting that the housing market moves in one way or another based on election years. The stock market tends to react. Bond yields sometimes. But not housing.” Source article.
With the consent of the Senate, the President does have the power to appoint members of the Federal Reserve, but the Federal Reserve is an independent agency. Keep in mind that the central bank has the power to raise, lower, or maintain interest rates without approval from the legislative or executive branches. Therefore, a president cannot do anything to prevent the Fed from raising rates.
What is the takeaway here? Well, do your research, but there doesn’t seem to be any historical proof that an election or a new President significantly impacts the real estate market. As I always say, the right time to buy or sell real estate is when you want or need to buy or sell real estate.
So, the impact that an election year has on the real estate market is circumstantial and based on people’s opinions, but not statistically proven in any large way.
As always, if you have any real estate questions, I am always here to help!
Lesley Lambert, Western Massachusetts REALTOR with Park Square Realty, 413-575-3611 or realestate.lesleylambert@gmail.com
