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A Return to ‘Normal’? The State of Real Estate in 2022 | Western Massachusetts

A Return to ‘Normal’? The State of Real Estate in 2022 | Western Massachusetts

Last year was one for the real estate history books. The pandemic helped usher in a buying frenzy that caused home prices to soar nationwide by a record 19.9% between August 2020 and August 2021.1

However, there were signs in the fourth quarter that the red-hot housing market was beginning to simmer down. In the month of October, only 60.3% of sales involved a bidding war—down from a high of 74.5% in April.2 While this trend could be attributed to seasonality, it could also be a signal that the real estate run-up may have passed its peak.

So what’s ahead for the U.S. housing market in 2022? Here’s where industry experts predict the market is headed in the coming year.

MORTGAGE RATES WILL CREEP UP

Most economists expect to see mortgage rates gradually rise this year after hitting record lows in late 2020 and early 2021.3 

Freddie Mac forecasts the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will average 3.5% in 2022, up from around 3% in 2021.4

The Mortgage Bankers Association predicts that rates will tick up to 4% by the end of the year. “Mortgage lenders and borrowers should expect rising mortgage rates over the next year, as stronger economic growth pushes Treasury yields higher,” said Mike Fratantoni, chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association at their 2001 Annual Convention & Expo in October.5

However, it’s important to keep in mind that even a 4% mortgage rate is low when compared to historical standards. According to industry trade blog The Mortgage Reports, “Between 1971 and December 2020, 30-year mortgage rates averaged 7.89%.”6

What does it mean for you? Low mortgage rates can reduce your monthly payment and make homeownership more affordable. Fortunately, there’s still time to lock in a historically-low rate. Whether you’re hoping to purchase a new home or refinance an existing mortgage, act soon before rates go up any further. We’d be happy to connect you with a trusted lending professional in our network.

THE MARKET WILL BECOME MORE BALANCED

In 2021, we experienced one of the most competitive real estate markets ever. Fears about the virus and a shift to remote work triggered a huge uptick in demand. At the same time, many existing homeowners delayed their plans to sell, and supply and labor shortages hindered new construction.

This led to an extreme market imbalance that benefitted sellers and frustrated buyers. According to George Ratiu, director of economic research at Realtor.com, “Prices and sellers reached for the moon [last] year. It looks like we are now about to move back to earth.”7

Data from Realtor.com released in November showed that listing price reductions had more than doubled since February 2021. And the average days on market (an indicator of how long it takes a home to sell) has been slowly creeping up since June.7

What’s causing this change in market dynamics? The real estate market typically slows down in the fall and winter. But economists also suspect a fundamental shift in supply and demand.

At the National Association of Realtors’ annual conference last November, the group’s chief economist, Lawrence Yun, told attendees that he expects increased supply to come from an uptick in new construction—which is already underway—and an end to the mortgage forbearance program. “With more housing inventory to hit the market, the intense multiple offers will start to ease,” he said.8

Demand is also predicted to wane slightly in the coming year. Rising mortgage rates and record-high prices have made homeownership unaffordable for a growing number of Americans. And in a recent Reuters poll, nearly 80% of property analysts said they expect housing affordability to worsen over the next several years.9

What does it mean for you? If you struggled to buy a home last year, there may be some relief on the horizon. Increased supply and softening demand could make it easier to finally secure the home of your dreams. If you’re a seller, it’s still a great time to cash out your big equity gains! And with more inventory on the market, you’ll have an easier time finding your next home. Reach out for a free consultation so we can discuss your specific needs and goals.

HOME PRICES LIKELY TO KEEP CLIMBING, BUT AT A SLOWER PACE

Nationally, home prices rose an estimated 16.8% in 2021.8 But the average rate of appreciation is expected to slow down in 2022.

Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com, told Yahoo! News, “Home asking prices have decelerated in the second half of 2021, with median listing price growth slipping from a peak of 17.2% in April to just 8.6% in October.”10

But experts disagree about how much more property values can continue to climb this year. Goldman Sachs predicts that home prices will rise by 13.5%, while Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are forecasting a 7.9% and 7% rate of appreciation, respectively.2

However, not all analysts are as bullish. The National Association of Realtors predicts a 2.8% rate of appreciation for existing homes and 4.4% for new homes, while the Mortgage Bankers Association expects the average home price to decrease by 2.5% by the end of the year.10,2

According to Hale, “With prices near all-time highs and mortgage rates expected to rise, we expect this slowdown in prices to continue.”10

What does it mean for you? If you’re a buyer who has been waiting on the sidelines for home prices to drop, you may be out of luck. Even if home prices dip slightly (and most economists expect them to rise) any savings are likely to be offset by higher mortgage rates. The good news is that decreased competition means more choice and less likelihood of a bidding war. We can help you get the most for your money in today’s market.

RENTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE

Along with home, gasoline, and used vehicle prices, rent prices rose dramatically last year. According to CoreLogic, in September, rents for single-family homes were up 10.2% nationally year over year.11 And economists at Realtor.com expect them to climb another 7.1% in 2022.12

“Homes are expensive now…but for most people, the comparison that is most important is how that cost of homeownership is going to compare to the cost of renting,” Zillow Senior Economist Jeff Tucker told CNBC in November.13

Tucker also pointed out that rent is less predictable than a mortgage—and more likely to go up along with inflation.13

Real assets, like real estate, are often used as a hedge against inflation. That’s because property values typically rise with inflation.14 And when a homeowner takes out a mortgage, they lock in a set housing payment for the next 30 years.

In contrast, renters are at the mercy of the market—and they don’t gain any of the benefits of homeownership, like tax deductions, equity, or appreciation.

George Ratiu of Realtor.com told CNBC that he advises buyers to consider their budget and time frame. If they plan to stay in the home for at least three to five years, he believes it often makes sense to buy.13

Fortunately, it’s shaping up to be a better year for buyers. “I think 2022 has the promise of providing less competition, a lot more homes to choose from, and, as a result, a lot more approachable prices,” Ratiu said.13

What does it mean for you? Both property and rent prices are expected to continue rising. But when you purchase a home with a fixed-rate mortgage, you can rest assured knowing that your monthly mortgage payment will never go up. Whether you’re a first-time homebuyer or a real estate investor, we can help you make the most of today’s real estate market.

HERE TO GUIDE YOU

While national real estate numbers and predictions can provide a “big picture” outlook for the year, real estate is local. And as local market experts, we can guide you through the ins and outs of our market and the local issues that are likely to drive home values in your particular neighborhood. 

If you’re considering buying or selling a home in 2022, contact me now to schedule a free consultation. I’ll work with you to develop an action plan to meet your real estate goals this year.

Lesley Lambert, Western MA REALTOR with Park Square Realty 413-575-3611

Sources:

  1. Fortune –
    https://fortune.com/2021/11/04/us-home-prices-real-estate-forecast-2022-outlook/
  2. Fortune –
    https://fortune.com/2021/11/29/housing-market-real-estate-predictions-2022-forecast/
  3. Freddie Mac –
    http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms30.html
  4. Freddie Mac – https://freddiemac.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/freddie-mac-strong-housing-market-will-continue-even-rates-and
  5. Mortgage Bankers Association –
    https://www.mba.org/2021-press-releases/october/mba-annual-forecast-purchase-originations-to-increase-9-percent-to-record-173-trillion-in-2022
  6. The Mortgage Reports –
    https://themortgagereports.com/61853/30-year-mortgage-rates-chart
  7. Realtor.com –
    https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/has-housing-market-peaked/
  8. National Association of Realtors –
    https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nars-yun-says-housing-market-doing-well-may-normalize-in-2022
  9. Reuters –
    https://www.reuters.com/world/us/rise-us-house-prices-halve-next-year-affordability-worsen-2021-12-07/
  10. Yahoo! News –
    https://www.yahoo.com/now/where-home-prices-headed-2022-130012748.html
  11. CNBC –
    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/16/inflation-rent-for-single-family-homes-surged-10percent-in-september.html
  12. Realtor.com –
    https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/what-to-expect-in-2022-housing-market/
  13. CNBC –
    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/23/rising-inflation-hot-housing-market-what-you-need-to-know-about-buying-a-home.html
  14. Money –
    https://money.com/inflation-2021-stocks-bitcoin-gold-reits-commodities/

Westfield, MA REAL ESTATE MARKET REPORT, November 2021 by Lesley Lambert, REALTOR

Westfield, MA Real Estate Market Report, November 2021 by Lesley Lambert, Westfield REALTOR

You may be curious to know what has happened in the real estate market in Westfield, MA over the past twelve months. I have taken the time to create a report that shows you the market statistics and changes over the past year.

If you are considering selling or buying a home I would love to have a personal consultation with you to determine how to best meet your goals and needs.

Take a look at the current report and let me know if you have questions. Lesley Lambert, Westfield REALTOR with Park Square Realty 413-575-3611.

Understand What Goes into House Prices in a Competitive Market | Western MA Real Estate

Understand What Goes into House Prices in a Competitive Market | Western MA Real Estate

Article From HouseLogic.com

By: Erica Christoffer
Published: May 13, 2021

Even in a seller’s market, home sales depend on certain factors that may require you to be flexible.

You may be selling a home in a competitive market — for example, with low inventory and high demand. And you may be thinking “Yay!” or at least “Whew.” You know you’re likely to have more interested buyers, better offers, and a quicker trip to contract than you’d have otherwise. But along with that good news comes the need to manage your expectations by understanding what determines house prices and home sales. Factors include the right real estate agent, local market conditions, buyer preferences, seasonality, and mortgage rates versus inventory.

 Work with the Right Real Estate Agent to Sell Your Home

 House prices come down to the micro real estate market, says Jasen Edwards, a real estate coach and former member of REALTOR? magazine’s 30 Under 30. “What’s going on in the U.S. as a whole is different than what’s going on in Austin, Texas. [And both are] different than what’s going on in your neighborhood,” he says. “You might hear that it’s a strong seller’s market, but you might be in a micro buyer’s market.”

 Edwards advises researching your market on your own, then interviewing real estate professionals to find the best person to work with. Sellers should approach working with an agent as though they’re forming a team. You’ll be creating a plan together on how to maximize home pricing, Edwards says.

 Bernadette Inez and her broker created such a team. Inez, who had lived in the same southwest Chicago home for 26 years, needed to sell last fall when she was going through a divorce. She wanted a real estate professional who could give her strong guidance in determining an asking price.

 Inez learned about Erika Villegas, managing broker and co-owner of RE/MAX In The Village in Oak Park, Ill., through Villegas’ community sponsorships and networking events. After an initial consultation, Inez hired Villegas to list her home.

 Consider Local Market Conditions that Affect House Prices

 Villegas did a hyper local market analysis and found the price of houses similar to Inez’s to be about $229,000. She recommended listing at $239,900, mainly because of the area’s lack of inventory and extremely low days on market. It was the right call. The house had 35 showings in the first 48 hours and generated five offers at $10,000 above the asking price.

 Sometimes home improvements are needed to maximize the price. When Inez decided to put her home on the market, she opted to do some updates to appeal to more buyers. The 1950s tile in one of her bathrooms was showing its age, so she hired a contractor to install a vinyl covering. She hired someone to reglaze the tub in her other bathroom and replace all faucets, including in the kitchen. She also repainted her living room.

 Think about Buyer Preferences that May Affect Your Home Pricing

 In addition to home condition, other factors, including buyer preferences, affect price. Being located on a busy street or alley, for instance, may deter some buyers.

“I put myself in the buyers’ shoes [about] what they’re seeing in the home,” Villegas says. “For instance, many are home schooling right now. That is influencing which features buyers want in a home.”

 Know that Seasonality May Be a Factor

 Seasonality has historically been a factor, but 2020 was an exception, when strong home sales extended into late fall and early winter. Existing-home sales in November were up almost 26%, and sales prices nearly 15% from the previous year, according to the National Association of REALTORS?. Transactions and house prices nationwide traditionally trend up in the summer, when home shopping activity is high. They slow in the winter, when demand wanes. Demand also correlates with Americans’ higher mobility rates in the summer, when school is out. However, seasonality is also regional, with markets in the Northeast and Midwest peaking more significantly in the summer than the South and West, NAR reports.

“Listed homes have been going under contract on average at less than a month due to a backlog of buyers wanting to take advantage of record-low mortgage rates,” says Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist.

 Weigh Mortgage Rates Against Inventory

 Low interest rates can of course make purchasing a home more affordable for buyers. However, the lack of homes on the market has created stiff competition among buyers. In fact, it often puts them in bidding wars, nullifying the benefit of the low rates. According to Redfin, record low interest rates have increased home buyers’ purchasing power by 6.9%. But higher home prices have cancelled out the effect.

 In multiple offer situations, Villegas creates a spreadsheet outlining the terms and pricing of each offer for her clients. She then calls the loan officers of the potential buyers to make sure their information has been verified. After that, Villegas goes through each offer one by one with her sellers. Together, they evaluate which one is not only the best, but also the most secure. She also helps her sellers prepare for the appraisal by creating a list of the home’s updates from the past few years.

 Why You May Need to Be Flexible

 Flexibility is a plus, even when circumstances seem to favor sellers. Low inventory and aggressive house prices are compromising many buyers’ ability to afford a home. Sellers should be prepared to make adjustments if necessary.

“No one has a crystal ball,” says Edwards. Ideally, the seller should list at a price that gets attention and triggers a lot of interest, he adds.

 When buyers are continuing to take advantage of ultra-low interest rates, a seller’s market will remain in areas with sought-after price points and a low inventory of homes for sale.

If you want to discuss this in greater detail specific to our Western MA real estate market, I would love to meet with you! Lesley Lambert, Western MA REALTOR with Park Square Realty 413-575-3611

The Real Estate Ladies of Western MA: Unexpected expenses after you purchase a home

In this episode Lesley and Aimee share some advice about potential home owner expenses that come up after you buy a home.  If you are looking to purchase a home in Western Massachusetts you can reach Aimee and Lesley at: therealestateladiesofma@gmail.com 

You can reach Lesley Lambert, Western MA REALTOR with Park Square Realty at 413-575-3611

2015 Was a Year of Increased Sales Volume in Western MA Real Estate

Western Massachusetts
Western Massachusetts (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

The numbers are done being crunched and it is official…2015 was a better year in Western Massachusetts real estate!

The infographic below shows the increased figures for the Realtor Association of the Pioneer Valley, Park Square Realty and then my own personal increase.  Guess which number is the highest?

The REALTOR Association of the Pioneer Valley reported an increase of 11.7%, Park Square Realty Company increase was 21.5% and my own personal increase squashed those at 24%!

2016 is poised to be even better! If you are thinking of making a move, remember to call the agent that is getting more people moving!

Lesley Lambert, Western MA REALTOR with Park Square Realty 413-575-3611